Session Chair: Matias Cattaneo Date Nov 2, 2023, 3:00 pm – 3:40 pm Location Maeder Hall Speakers Isaiah Andrews MIT Details Event Description Empirical researchers frequently rely on normal approximations in order to summarize and communicate uncertainty about their findings. When such approximations are unreliable, they can lead the audience for the research to make misguided decisions. We propose to measure the failure of the normal approximation for a given estimator by the total variation distance between a bootstrap distribution and the normal distribution parameterized by the point estimate and standard error. For a wide class of decision problems and a class of uninformative priors, we show that a multiple of the total variation distance bounds the mistakes which result from relying on the normal approximation. In a sample of recent empirical articles that use a bootstrap for inference, we find that failures of normality are common. We suggest convenient alternative reports for settings where normality fails.